The first Rasmussen Reports Kansas poll of 2006 shows the incumbent Governor, Kathleen Sebelius (D), leading former state House Speaker Robin Jennison ® 46% to 32%. Sebelius also leads state Senator Jim Barnett ® 46% to 35% (see crosstabs).
So, 46% of Kansans are ready to re-elect the Governor. They found that 64% of the public views Governor Sebelius favorably, comparable to the 64% SUSA found. Most people don’t even know the challengers yet, but a quarter of Republicans are ready to cross party lines and vote Democratic.
If the worst that can be said is that she’s under 50%, good for her. Early numbers are often very noisy, but the rule of thumb is that under 50% on a poll like this means there’ll be a real race, under 40% means the incumbent is in trouble. By that standard, the Governor will have to work, but the smart money says she gets re-elected.