In SurveyUSA’s latest poll of presidential approval in all 50 states, there are only 5 states where a majority backs him, and only 7 where a plurality approves. Kansas is moving back to the president, up to ‑4% net approval, the tenth most supportive state and a shift of 15%. That move was largely among Republicans, who went from 31% net approval to 55%. Democratic net approval ticked up 8%, while independent approval dropped 10%.
Conservative approval returned to levels found two months ago, moderate approval held perfectly still. Liberal approval dropped 6%.
Meanwhile, Governor Sebelius remains popular. She is the 13th most popular governor, with a net approval of 32%. Her approval is up 1%, for no statistical difference. Democratic approval skyrocketed, jumping from 49% net approval to 62%. Republican approval narrowed, but Republicans continue to approve of the Governor. Independent voters, the ones who decide Kansas elections, relaxed a bit from the huge shift last month. They had gone from 12% net approval to 47%, and this month slid to 34%.
Conservatives moved away from Sebelius this month, marking the first time she’s faced a statistically significant disfavor from that group. A conservative Republican opponent has stirred them up enough to get interested. Moderate net approval is astounding at 50%, a 6% rise since last month, and a strong sign that Barnett won’t win in November.
The President’s approval numbers are surprisingly variable from month to month. That has to make things difficult for campaign strategists, since running against the President is easier than running against a less-known incumbent, but only works if people have established opinions about the president.