SurveyUSA finds the governor favored 55% to 42%, and Paul Morrison is up 56% to 43%. That’s among likely voters. Incumbents are ahead in other statewide races.
The governor’s numbers have held relatively steady, but this represents a major shift for Morrison. Republican support for the incumbent Republican slipped 12 points, while Independent and Democratic support for Morrison held steady at 61 and 87% respectively. Conservative support for their man Kline is unchanged, but moderates went from backing Morrison by 35% to 49% support for him.
SUSA used to split pro-life and pro-choice voters, which would have been very interesting for this race, but they seem to have stopped doing that. They do break the vote down by Bush approval, and net support for Kline among people who approve of the President slipped 14%, while Morrison support among those who disapprove of the President rose 15%.
What had been a tied race has become as Democrat-friendly as the Governors’ race.
Meanwhile, the non-partisan and widely respected National Journal has expanded its rankings of competitive House races from 50 to 60, and Nancy Boyda’s challenge in the Kansas 2nd comes in at 59. This is in part a response to an independent poll from Cooper & Secrest showing the race as a statistical tie (45–41, within the margin of error), and evidence from national polling that shows the field of competitive races expanding dramatically. MyDD recently moved this race from “others to watch” to “likely Republican,” and the campaign tells me they expect to win 52 to 48. They have good reason to think that.
You can help turn Kansas blue. Give Boyda the resources to beat back Dick Cheney’s fundraising.